Pathways to net-zero emissions from aviation

نویسندگان

چکیده

International climate goals imply reaching net-zero global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by roughly mid-century (and greenhouse gas the end of century). Among most difficult to avoid will be those from aviation given industry’s need for energy-dense liquid fuels that lack commercially competitive substitutes and difficult-to-abate non-CO2 radiative forcing. Here we systematically assess pathways aviation. We find ambitious reductions in demand air transport improvements energy efficiency aircraft might up 61% (2.8 GtCO2 equivalent (GtCO2eq)) 27% (1.2 GtCO2eq), respectively, projected business-as-usual 2050. However, further depend on replacing fossil jet fuel with large quantities biofuels or synthetic (that is, 2.5–19.8 EJ sustainable fuels)—which may substantially more expensive. Moreover, 3.4 GtCO2eq removed atmosphere compensate forcing sector achieve Our results inform investments priorities innovation highlighting plausible aviation, including relative potential trade-offs changes behaviour, technology, sources removals. Decarbonizing is travel patterns technical economic constraints. Through nine holistic scenarios towards 2050, this study can a sector.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Nature sustainability

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['2398-9629']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-01046-9